Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.631330 3.062110 3.539106 4.106172 4.761728 5.495582 6.379307
2026-01-18 1.946833 2.520470 3.223441 4.147091 5.327795 6.785741 8.722408
2026-01-25 1.502387 2.123465 2.950609 4.130089 5.766402 7.954109 11.099866
2026-02-01 1.140007 1.736475 2.589094 3.892294 5.829696 8.599215 12.855630
2026-02-08 0.912054 1.482983 2.350949 3.760051 5.984131 9.352438 14.834435
2026-02-15 0.765583 1.319477 2.209014 3.732600 6.268355 10.309662 17.227866
2026-02-22 0.683628 1.241805 2.183606 3.876294 6.830709 11.759067 20.585197
2026-03-01 0.588754 1.123405 2.068132 3.844116 7.084232 12.723157 23.253386
2026-03-08 0.506698 1.012601 1.946105 3.776458 7.256883 13.558309 25.793519
2026-03-15 0.447798 0.934595 1.870059 3.777964 7.548827 14.632371 28.894425
2026-03-22 0.430963 0.936058 1.943515 4.073782 8.435615 16.909585 34.545005
2026-03-29 0.394136 0.890064 1.915813 4.162353 8.923050 18.478763 39.013414
2026-04-05 0.357375 0.840288 1.877369 4.232775 9.404297 20.139541 43.982693
2026-04-12 0.320167 0.783575 1.816537 4.248511 9.778513 21.644989 48.871415
2026-04-19 0.284783 0.724803 1.741934 4.222062 10.057045 22.987767 53.606356
2026-04-26 0.240069 0.635417 1.583094 3.976150 9.800738 23.128666 55.692284
2026-05-03 0.208554 0.573109 1.477857 3.840142 9.779022 23.789294 59.055209
2026-05-10 0.187134 0.532998 1.420259 3.811784 10.012093 25.068711 64.054369
2026-05-17 0.176760 0.520688 1.430835 3.958335 10.702730 27.529840 72.264597
2026-05-24 0.159368 0.485635 1.376440 3.925451 10.926585 28.873966 77.862802
2026-05-31 0.142579 0.449200 1.312465 3.856379 11.044172 29.965207 82.961827
2026-06-07 0.130363 0.424110 1.275902 3.857911 11.354189 31.594966 89.705714
2026-06-14 0.129528 0.433884 1.340438 4.159840 12.549441 35.729544 103.783248